A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
