Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
